The NBA playoffs continue on Sunday with four more games on the schedule. I have Best Bet picks in both daytime games on national TV ABC (Bulls/Heat) and Suns/Lakers).
The other two games on Sunday night weren’t strong enough to be official plays, but I have some thoughts and analysis for each game below.
TORONTO at NEW JERSEY (-4, 191) – Game 4 – 7:35 pm ET (TNT)
There is no official game in this game, but I would lean slightly towards the Raptors (+).
Top-ranked teams usually bounce back in Game 4 after a SU loss and the Raptors fit into a decent 60% ATS playoff spot based on their 13-point loss in Game 3.
While the situation is favorable, I am reluctant to go against the Nets as they play well in this series and are 4-1 SU/ATS in the five head-to-head meetings this season when both teams had their full rosters available. . New Jersey dominated those games and held a lead of more than 14 points in four of the five meetings.
No opinion on total (O/U 191). Game 3 totaled exactly 191 points and doesn’t see any value either way.
DALLAS (-3½, 210) at GOLDEN STATE – Game 4 – 10:05 pm ET (TNT)
There is no official game in this game, but I would lean slightly towards the Mavericks (-).
Dallas finished the regular season with the best record in the league (67-15 SU) and now find themselves behind in this series against the #8 seed Golden State Warriors. Expect Dallas to bounce back with a solid performance tonight as this is the biggest game of the season for the defending Western Conference champions.
Class A teams losing SU is a long-term winning play in Game 4 and the Mavericks fit into a 54-28 ATS situation based on that premise. Losing road teams is also a long-term winning play in the postseason and Dallas fits into a 68-42 ATS situation that builds on its embarrassing 18-point loss in Game 3.
Although the situations are favorable, the line is too high. The Warriors are much better than a typical #8 seed and Golden State’s full season record of 44-41 SU is misleading as the Warriors are an incredible 18-5 SU/ATS since March 5 with their entire starting lineup. board (excluding the March 11 game that Baron Davis missed).
My full-season power ratings favor the Mavericks by 4 points; However, using only games from March 5 would favor Golden State by 1½ points tonight. The Warriors also match up well in this series and are 8-2 SU/ATS against Dallas the past two seasons. Golden State head coach Don Nelson previously coached in Dallas and is very familiar with the current Maverick style and players.
No official game in total (O/U 210). A slight tilt toward the Under since the three playoff games have averaged just 197½ points per game and I expect Dallas to focus more on defense after giving up 109 points in Game 3. Overall, my scoring pace and shooting models percentage have averaged 208 and 210½ in the three playoff games.
STEVE MERRIL is a professional sports handicapper and a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. Get your Premium plays here.
