Many of our communities have participated in community needs assessments, community health needs assessments, community economic development plans, and ongoing planning for the built environment. All of these planning lenses are useful ways to look at communities and build for the future. One of the most important lenses to use in community planning over the next 10 to 20 years is the projected impact of aging on our communities, counties, and states. What will it mean for a state to go from being 39th in proportion of older adults in 2010, to 4th in 2030? What does it mean for a county to have a population change that includes an increase in seniors of more than 100% in the next 10 years, along with a projected decrease in people under 40?

Understand the demographic trend

The demographic trend has been given many names, such as “Age Wave” or “Silver Tsunami,” with arguments at meetings and blogs about whether those terms are useful or pejorative, descriptive or discriminatory. Also, some people find the term “elderly” difficult, while others find “elderly” patronizing. Once people have taken care of analyzing the grammatical minefield, the most important questions are to understand both the demographic trend and other substantive factors.

Although a few in the field suggest that population aging is fairly slow and easily absorbed, the vast majority of experts agree that it is a significant and fast-moving trend that will not be easily absorbed. The research I have conducted has covered everything from future health professional shortages and gaps in the health system to the built environment, funding, and policy trends. The potential impact of our aging population on communities and states is significant. It will require proactive and sustained responses at the community, state and national levels.

Some communities and states are better positioned to respond to this trend than others.

The impact also depends on some other key factors

The ability of groups to respond effectively depends on a number of other key factors. Although the demographic trend is the main issue, other important factors that affect our ability to respond include the following:

• General health of the community;
• Poverty levels, average and median incomes (especially for middle-aged and elderly people);
• Local municipal budgets, economic qualifications and tax capacity;
• Legislation, policies, and funding related to aging and community development;
• Regional infrastructure and built environment.

The impact of demographic trends is also determined by the state of community and regional planning that already exists to address the impact of aging in our communities. Leadership and citizen participation are also important factors that could help drive and mobilize initiatives. Leaders can and must respond. The problems are complex, but not overwhelming. However, they must be addressed proactively.

How a social calculator can predict the potential impact of aging for communities and states

Many of these factors have been analyzed by our team through a number of aging-related research and planning projects in recent years. We are now completing a Social Impact Calculator for Aging that can provide an initial analysis of the local environment and the state environment. It examines the key factors that shape the social, economic, and community health of a county or state.

Research projects I have recently completed demonstrate that social determinants of health, health classifications, economic benchmarks, and policy issues help communities and states move forward or serve as additional challenges.

Social determinants. Social Determinants shape us as individuals, families and communities. They include such things as family income, jobs, poverty, and financial assets. Income, assets, poverty, and unemployment have been shown to be some of the most important determinants of family and community health, health disparities, and health equity. Race and ethnicity have been deemed extremely important by the World Health Organization, US federal government offices, and the health research and funding community. Individual, family and community educational levels are also significant. Taken together, or aggregated, one finds snapshots of the community that reflect the local economy, jobs, and poverty; racial and ethnic mix; and educational levels. They help predict how our lives will be shaped in the future.

Community and state health ratings. Many research groups rate communities and states based on their overall health. One of the key national rankings used is the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJ) annual assessment. County health rankings and roadmaps. They provide excellent state and county ratings based on analysis using more than a dozen separate indicators. That ranking provides extremely important information to help determine whether an area faces significant health disparities and inequities. The ratings can indicate to planners whether community health problems will pose additional challenges that will negatively affect the community’s ability to respond to the aging trend; or whether positive community health will make it easier for communities to implement strategies to respond. These health ratings can help inform the plans that most effectively address key issues.

Economic Benchmarks. Communities are very much shaped by economic trends big and small. The short-term and long-term economic ratings provide a picture of the economic health of the community. Counties and states with strong economic scores are better able to respond to these challenges than those with a weak economic outlook. Communities facing a loss of jobs and capital, and a declining tax base, are not as well positioned to respond to the Age Wave as communities facing a different economic landscape.

Other factors that can also help predict the impact of demographic trends include whether or not a region has a net population loss. Areas that are losing population are also beginning to lose jobs and infrastructure over time, unless this can be proactively addressed.

Laws, policies, legislative initiatives, and funding priorities and strategies can also determine how well a local community or state can respond to this trend. Policies and funding that support economic development, the built environment, and services for older adults provide an environment that facilitates a community or county’s proactive response to this demographic trend.

The power of collective impact

The combined or collective impact of (1) demographic trends, (2) social determinants, (3) health classifications, (4) local and state economies, and (5) policies together shape a region’s sustainability. They can also serve as general predictors of how hard a community is hit by an aging population. Taken together, these factors paint a picture of what may happen for communities, counties, and states. They help us understand the current and projected collective impact.

Social Impact of Aging Calculator

The Aging Social Impact Calculator analyzes states and counties, providing an initial prediction about the level of impact you can expect from population aging in your region. Some of the most important benchmarks that make up predictive imaging include:

• demographic factors
• The social determinants of health
• County Health Classification (Health Outcomes and Health Risk Behaviors)
• County economic picture
• Policy and financing framework

Work with a predictor

Any social impact calculator has predictive capabilities. Many economic calculators have been used successfully by the World Bank, the Low Income Investment Fund, and others. Robert Wood Johnson’s County Health Roadmaps and Ratings and state-level health department profiles (such as New Mexico Community Snapshots) provide images of community health that capture both the present and the near future. The Social Impact Calculator for Aging provides snapshots of the projected impact on a community, and the community’s strengths and weaknesses that will affect its ability to respond. It provides a useful picture of state and local capacity, which can help leaders choose priorities that align with their ability to respond.

The predictors offer a holistic overview that can serve as an important starting point for communities and states to respond to the needs of older adults. They serve as broad frameworks or roadmaps. Once a predictive profile is developed, community leaders can drill down into the community to:

• Understand and address key issues;
• Choose priorities and create the size and scope of a response that fits within the capacity of the community;
• Build on the strengths and assets of the community;
• Reduce risks;
• Create plans that bring stakeholders together and leverage resources.

Each state and community has its own unique resources that can be used to respond to this issue, which are complex and difficult to measure with a social impact calculator. These include wealthy family and social networks, community leaders, volunteers, religious communities, and civic organizations that represent important community assets.

1. The term “aging wave” was coined by Ken Dychtwald decades ago to capture the next demographic trend that was then on the horizon and is now a reality.

2. Social Determinants of Health was developed by the World Health Organization and used by leading institutions (US Department of Health and Human Services, Kaiser Foundation) and key research organizations across the US. to address community health holistically.